LCROSS, and the Hazards of Writing Near-Future Science Fiction

Today the LCROSS (Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite) is supposed to launch on an Atlas-V rocket, along with the LRO (Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter). LCROSS is specifically designed to check for water in shadowed craters at the lunar south pole.

(Artist’s conception of LCROSS approach to the moon, from http://lcross.arc.nasa.gov/. Click to enlarge.)

The mission profile involves crashing the Centaur upper stage into an as-yet-undetermined crater, with the LCROSS vehicle and its sensors following close behind. Not only will LCROSS itself examine the ejecta for signs of water, but the debris from the impact is expected to rise high enough above the moon’s surface to be visible to earth-based instruments as well. Analysis should show whether hydrogen detected by previous missions (e.g., Clementine) is in the form of water.

Why does this demonstrate the hazards of writing near-future SF? Because I know of a novel — written by me, for which I’m trying to find a publisher and an agent — in which a major part of the plot is a difficult journey to the lunar south pole to retrieve ice to keep the fledgling colony alive.

The LCROSS mission could either lend credence to my treatment of lunar conditions, or it could make the novel much more fiction than science. So here’s what I would like:

  • First, I’d like the mission to detect appreciable amounts of water ice, no matter what crater they choose.
  • Second, I’d like NASA to select a different crater than I did, so no matter what LCROSS finds my story could still be plausible. I picked Faustini Crater for my ice expedition, so anywhere else, okay?

Such is the hazard of writing realistic, near-future SF — your assumptions may be subject to verification before your story ever sees print! (Here I repeat my hope that my story will indeed see print. Time will tell. But if you know of a publisher looking for such a story, point them my way!)

If you want more info, here’s the NASA page about the mission.

[BREAK, BREAK]

And, how about a little space history: Five years ago today — June 18, 2004 — marked the first time a U.S. astronaut was in space when his child was born on Earth. Edward Michael “Mike” Fincke was aboard the International Space Station when his wife gave birth to their second child.

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Space History: a Polar Explorer


(Explorer-52, or “Hawkeye-1”. Public domain image from Wikimedia.)

Thirty-five years ago today — June 3, 1974 — Explorer-52 launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, aboard a Scout rocket. Built by the University of Iowa, the satellite was also known as Hawkeye-1.

According to NASA’s National Space Science Data Center Master Catalog,

The primary mission objective was to conduct particles and fields investigations of the polar magnetosphere of the earth out to 21 earth radii. Secondary objectives were to make magnetic field and plasma distribution measurements in the solar wind, and to study Type-3 radio emissions caused by solar electron streams in the interplanetary medium.

And now you know.

Since the satellite was launched into a polar orbit, I have to believe the Thule Tracking Station — callsign POGO, which I commanded for one year of my Air Force career — downlinked at least some of the data from it. That was many years later than this launch, of course, so it’s not much of a connection … but I’ll take what I can get.

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Today in Space History: Soviet Lunar Orbiter

Thirty-five years ago today — May 29, 1974 — the Russians (i.e., at that time the Soviets) launched the Luna-22 orbiter on a Proton-K rocket from the Baikonur Cosmodrome.


(Luna-22 Spacecraft. Image from NASA Space Science Data Center Master Catalog.)

What makes that so much more interesting to me is that the Russians still launch Protons from Baikonur. In 2002 I spent three weeks at the cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, monitoring Nimiq-2 payload processing and its mating with the Proton rocket.

I spent Thanksgiving of 2002 flying with the spacecraft aboard an AN-124 transport, and monitored the checkouts and prep work until my boss relieved me a little before Christmas. So I missed the actual launch … but I got to spend Christmas at home, which was better.

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Monkeys on Saturn? No, Monkeys on Jupiter

Two space history items for today, May 28th:

Fifty years ago — on this date in 1959 — a Jupiter rocket lifted off from the Eastern Space and Missile Center at Cape Canaveral, carrying two female monkeys, “Able” and “Baker.” Able was a seven-pound rhesus monkey and Baker was a squirrel monkey that weighed less than a pound. The monkeys traveled 1700 miles downrange, reached an altitude of 360 miles, and survived “in good condition.”

In our second item, a Saturn rocket — designated SA-6 — launched from Cape Canaveral on this date in 1964. The unmanned launch tested the rocket and spacecraft components for the Apollo mission to the moon. It did not, however, carry any monkeys.

You can read more about Able and Baker on this Smithsonian page or in this NPR article.

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First Shuttle to Dock with ISS — A Decade Ago

Ten years ago today — May 27, 1999 — Space Shuttle Discovery launched from the Kennedy Space Center on mission STS-96, a logistics and resupply mission for the International Space Station. It was the first shuttle flight to dock with the ISS.


(STS-96 launch. Image KSC-99PP-0591 from the STS-96 KSC Electronic Photo File.)

U.S. astronauts Kent V. Rominger, Rick D. Husband, Ellen Ochoa, Tamara E. Jernigan, and Daniel T. Barry, Canadian astronaut Julie Payette, and Russian cosmonaut Valery I. Tokarev spent the next nine days in space. They delivered cargo from the SPACEHAB module and the Integrated Cargo Carrier, including the Russian STRELA cargo crane, the SPACEHAB Oceaneering Space System box, and a U.S.-built crane called the ORU (Orbital Replacement Unit) Transfer Device.

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This Day in Space History: Apollo-X Launch

Forty years ago today — May 18, 1969 — astronauts Thomas P. Stafford, John W. Young, Jr., and Eugene A. Cernan lifted off on the Apollo 10 mission. Their Saturn V launch vehicle (number SA-505) launched at 12:49 a.m. EDT from the Kennedy Space Center, on “the mission before THE mission.”

(Apollo-X launch. Click to enlarge.)

Travelling in Command Module “Charlie Brown” and Lunar Module “Snoopy,” the astronauts tested all aspects of the lunar mission except the actual lunar landing, and accomplished several “firsts” including:

  • First transmitted color photographs of the full Earth from a crew in space
  • First demonstration rendezvous in lunar orbit
  • First burning of LM descent stage engine in lunar landing configuration
  • First LM steerable antenna at lunar distances
  • First LM within 15,240 meters [8 nautical miles] of the lunar surface
  • First crew-assisted navigational, visual, and photographic evaluations of the moon
  • First and only Apollo launch from Launch Complex 39B



(Views of Earth from Apollo-X. Click to enlarge.)

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Images from the Johnson Space Center Digital Image Collection.



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First Geosynchronous Weather Satellite

Thirty-five years ago today — May 17, 1974 — a Delta rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral carrying SMS-1, the Synchronous Meteorological Satellite-1. It was a weather satellite prototype, the first in geosynchronous orbit.

Thought you ought to know.

If you want to know more, here’s the NASA catalog description of SMS-1, and here’s a page about the history of satellite meteorology.

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A Lifting Body and a 'Misty' Launch

Two space history anniversaries today:

Forty years ago today — May 9, 1969 — John A. Manke flew the HL-10 lifting body in its first supersonic flight at the Dryden Flight Research Facility at Edwards Air Force Base.

(HL-10 on the Edwards AFB lakebed, with B-52 flyover. NASA photo ECN-2203. Click to enlarge.)

And fifteen years ago — May 9, 1994 — a Scout rocket launched from Vandenberg AFB carrying the second Miniature Sensor Technology Integration spacecraft: MSTI-2, pronounced “Misty-two.” I was stationed at Vandy at the time, though I confess I don’t remember that particular launch.

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Space History: Magellan, Mission to Venus

Twenty years ago today — May 4, 1989 — the Space Shuttle Atlantis launched from Kennedy Space Center on mission STS-30. Astronauts David M. Walker, Ronald J. Grabe, Norman E. Thagard, Mary L. Cleave, and Mark C. Lee deployed the Magellan spacecraft on its voyage to map the planet Venus.

(STS-30 mission patch. Click to enlarge.)

The Magellan mission used synthetic aperture radar to map 98% of the planet’s surface before contact with the spacecraft was lost in October 1994. More information about the mission is available on this NASA page.

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Gravity Probe-B Launch Anniversary, Plus Two Launches

Five years ago today — April 20, 2004 — NASA’s Gravity Probe-B spacecraft was launched by a Delta 2 rocket from Vandenberg AFB. The mission carried four gyroscopes that were

the most perfect spheres ever made by humans. If these ping pong-sized balls of fused quartz and silicon were the size of the Earth, the elevation of the entire surface would vary by no more than 12 feet.

according to this NASA page. The mission was designed to test Einstein’s theory of space-time, and especially the effects of a rotating mass like the Earth on space-time. It collected date for 17 months, but solar flares and other glitches corrupted some of the data according to this report.

In more recent launch news, the Indians launched an Israeli-built spy satellite and Sea Launch launched a military communications satellite for Italy.

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